Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP is poised for a significant win in the 2024 Elections, as forecasted by the JANADHAR INDIA Pre-Poll Survey

Amravati : As the assembly election in Andhra Pradesh draws near, a pre-poll survey conducted by Janadhar India has forecasted that the incumbent Jagan Mohan Reddy’s Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) is poised to capture 125 seats out of 175, garnering a significant 49.2% share of the votes in the assembly election. Additionally, the YSRCP is expected to secure victory in 17 out of 25 parliamentary seats.
Chandra Babu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Alliance Party are anticipated to win 50 out of 175 seats in the upcoming assembly election, with a 46.3% vote share.
They are also expected to secure 8 out of 25 parliamentary seats. In contrast, the national parties, the BJP and INC, are not expected to win any seats in either the assembly or parliamentary elections, with a vote share of 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively, in the assembly election.

Even though Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP won convincingly with 151 out of 175 assembly seats and 22 parliamentary seats in the 2019 election, a recent pre-poll survey by Janadhar India suggests a potential decrease of 26 seats in the upcoming assembly election and 5 seats in the parliamentary election. Nevertheless, the expected vote share is predicted to be similar to that of the 2019 election.
From December 1, 2023, to February 25, 2024, an extensive survey was carried out with a significant sample of 150,000 individuals. The survey findings suggest that the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) is expected to win the majority of seats in both the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly and the Lok Sabha elections.
In the last election, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jan Sena ran independently, winning 23 and 1 seat respectively. Based on Janadhar India’s pre-poll survey, the TDP and Jan Sena alliance is predicted to secure around 50 seats, nearly doubling their previous total, with a combined rise in vote share of approximately 1.6%.
CM Satisfaction:
Jagan Mohan Reddy, the current Chief Minister, remains the most esteemed leader in the state. Based on Janadhar’s pre-poll survey, about 55% of participants held a favorable view of Jagan Mohan Reddy’s leadership, considering it good. In contrast, 7% of people viewed his Chief Ministerial work as average, while 38% of espondents rated his performance negatively, labeling it as bad.
Transfer of Votes Between Alliance Parties TDP and Jan Sena:
At first, the President of the Jan Sena Party’s announcement of the alliance between TDP and JS for the 2024 Assembly and General Elections was met with enthusiastic support from their followers. Yet, as time passed, there has been a steady decrease in the votes transferring from each party to the alliance.
At the beginning of Janadhar India’s pre-poll survey, the average vote transfer rate from JSP voters to the alliance was around 87% (in the case of a TDP candidate contesting), and the rate from TDP voters to the alliance was about 92% (in the case of a JSP candidate contesting). However, this rate gradually declined and dropped by the end of our survey in February 2024. At that point, the average vote transfer rate for traditional Telugu Desam Party (TDP) voters, when a Jan Sena candidate contests, was 72%, while the shift from Jan Sena’s traditional voters to TDP candidates was higher at 82%.
Parliament-Wise Detailed Pre-Poll Survey:
The pre-poll survey conducted by Janadhar covers a wide range of constituencies, including Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, Anakapalli, Araku, Kakinada, Amalapuram, Rajahmundry, Narasapuram, Eluru, Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Guntur, Narasaraopet, Bapatla, Ongole, Nellore, Tirupati, Chittoor, Rajampet, Kadapa, Kurnool, Nandyal, Hindupur, Anantapur, and others. It provides detailed information on the projected seat distribution and vote share for each constituency, offering a comprehensive overview of the upcoming elections.